Oil demand from China and India alone is expected to double in the next two decades as their economies continue to expand
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
Closely watched by the world for any escalation, the Iran-Israel conflict is already showing early signs of stress for India Inc - longer deliveries, doubling freight rates, extended working capital cycles, and higher costs. For those yet to feel the heat, there is growing apprehension and nervousness over future developments, observed industry executives.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
India features in the list of top 10 exporters to the UAE in November, 2010, with a total value of $6.9 billion (25.4 billion dirhams), or 63 per cent of UAE imports, the country's Federal Customs Authority (FCA) has said.
Two-wheeler exports from India fell by 17.8 per cent to 3.65 million units in 2022-23 (FY23), according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) on Thursday. This decline is due to a rise in global inflation and the weakening of economies and currencies in key export markets of Africa, Latin America (LatAm), and South Asia. In contrast to FY23, two-wheeler exports from India jumped 35.4 per cent to 4.44 million units in 2021-22 (FY22).
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
Exports grew to $14.4 billion in April 2008-09, against $10.95 billion a year ago. Imports, fuelled by a big rise in purchase of crude oil from abroad, went up to $24.27 billion against $17.76 billion. Trade deficit widened to $9.87 billion in the opening month of the current fiscal against $6.81 billion in the same period last year.
As sanctions-hit Russia increasingly relies on consumer products from India, outbound shipments to Russia have started picking up for the second consecutive month in October. This comes after it witnessed contraction for six consecutive months starting March, commerce and industry ministry data showed. During October, India exported goods worth $280 million, up 3.7 per cent as compared to a year ago. It was led by demand for items such as vegetables, tea, coffee, chemicals as well as iron and steel products.
India's exports rose marginally by 1.62 per cent to $33.92 billion, while trade deficit more than doubled to $27.98 billion in August due to increased crude oil imports, commerce ministry data said on Wednesday. The revised data showed that imports rose by 37.28 per cent to $61.9 billion in August this year. The preliminary data released by the ministry on September 3 had shown a 1.15 per cent decline in exports to $33 billion in August.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
The government said there is no proposal to abolish import duty on refined edible oils and no plans to ban sugar exports through Advance License Scheme, under which mills have an obligation to export about one million tonnes of sugar by March. "We have no such proposal," Food Secretary B C Gupta told reporters here when asked if the government was planning to waive off import duty on refined edible oils from the existing charge of 7.5 per cent.
Exports in June rose by 23.52 per cent to $40.13 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record level of $26.18 billion mainly due to jump in gold and crude oil imports, the government data said on Thursday. The country's export growth in May was 20.55 per cent. Imports expanded by 57.55 per cent to $66.31 billion in June compared to the year-ago month, the data showed.
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
Indian petroleum product exports are likely to rise three to five per cent this fiscal year from 2001/02, a senior industry official said on Monday.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
India's exports in January dipped by 6.58 per cent to $32.91 billion, as against $35.23 billion in the same month last year, according to the data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday. Trade deficit in January stood at $17.75 billion.
The Centre has garnered around Rs 2,500-3,000 crore in the first five weeks after it imposed a windfall tax on oil and gas companies for the export of fuel, Business Standard has learnt. It is likely that the government will continue with the one-time tax till the Indian crude basket is above $80 a barrel, sources said. The next review of the windfall tax on oil companies is early next week.
India's exports contracted by 22 per cent, the steepest decline in the last three years, to $32.97 billion in June on account of global demand slowdown, especially in the Western markets like the US and Europe. According to the data of the commerce ministry, the trade deficit in June stood at $20.3 billion against $22.07 billion in the same month last year due to a fall in exports and imports. The inbound shipments during the month under review declined by a steep 17.48 per cent to $53.10 billion.
India's exports rose by 2.14 per cent to $36.27 billion in July while the trade deficit almost tripled to $30 billion during the month due to over 70 per cent rise in crude oil imports, according to official data released on Friday. Imports shot up by 43.61 per cent to $66.27 billion in the month compared to July 2021, the data showed. The trade deficit was $10.63 billion in July 2021.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
Modi sees export-led growth one of the best ways to create jobs.
Russia dominated Saudi Arabia in oil supplies as the world's fastest-growing major economy for fossil fuels in October, relegating the Kingdom to third place. Iraq was India's top oil supplier, according to the data from Vortexa. Saudi Arabia's decline in India's oil market has coincided with Russia's rise, and ironically occurred amid growing diplomatic ties between Riyadh and New Delhi. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud is visiting India this month to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
India's exports rose by 43 per cent to $35.65 billion in October while trade deficit widened to $19.73 billion during the month, according to the official data released on Monday. Imports soared by 62.51 per cent to $55.37 billion, widening the trade deficit. Export sectors which recorded positive growth during October include petroleum, coffee, engineering goods, cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, gems and jewellery, chemicals plastic and linoleum and marine products, the data showed.
Moody's said it expects exposure to low oil prices to shave off 0.8 per cent from real GDP growth on average across oil exporting countries in 2016.
Iran is India's largest importer of tea in value terms while in terms of volume, it is the second largest after Russia
India has flagged concerns over non-tariff barriers (NTBs) faced by its exporters with the Russian government, commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal said on Monday. NTBs faced by Indian exporters are mainly in sectors such as marine products and pharmaceuticals.
Seven years after Modi took office, merchandise exports were lower in 2020-2021 than when he had taken over from Manmohan Singh, points out Aakar Patel.
There has been a dramatic decline in oil prices from the high of $147 a barrel in July, to less than a third of that today. However, it is too early to say if this is a fundamental change in the direction of oil prices, resulting from the announced cuts in production by the oil-exporting countries, or a blip in a falling market. The government seems to be assuming (or hoping that it is) the latter and is rushing ahead with its price cut plan.
India's merchandise exports in June rose by 16.78 per cent year-on-year to $37.94 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record $25.63 billion on account of a steep increase in gold and crude oil imports, according to the government's preliminary data released on Monday. The export growth in June moderated from 20.55 per cent in May and 48.34 per cent in June 2021. During the month under review, exports of engineering, pharmaceutical and plastic products recorded negative growth.
Tea planters and exporters are "extremely worried" over the possible impact on their shipments to Russia, India's second largest buyer of tea, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Western sanctions and disruption of payments in dollars as well as transhipments to Russia are expected as a fall-out of Russia launching an attack on Ukraine on Thursday. "The Russian market for Indian tea is extremely important as there are payment issues for shipments to Iran, another vital tea export destination. "Around 18 per cent of India's tea shipments go to Russia," India Tea Association chairperson Nayantara Palchoudhuri told PTI.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
The oil cartel's decision to maintain the production ceiling at its 2016 level, despite the recovery of the world economy, will ensure shortfalls in supply and high oil prices in the foreseeable future, warns Ambassador D P Srivastava.
Exports grew to $16.34 billion while imports rose to $27.14 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $10.79 billion in July, according to official figures released in New Delhi on Monday. On the back of increase in global prices, the crude oil import bill in July shot up by 69.3 per cent to $9.48 billion from $5.6 billion a year ago.
The country's exports rose by 23.69 per cent to $34.06 billion in January on healthy performance by engineering, petroleum and gems and jewellery segments even as trade deficit widened to $17.94 billion during the month, according to provisional data of the commerce ministry. Imports in January grew by 23.74 per cent to $52.01 billion, the data, released on Tuesday, showed. Trade deficit widened to $17.94 billion during the month as against $14.49 billion in the same month last year.
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